The Blue Jays Make a Bold Move: Signing Tyler Rogers to a Three-Year Deal
The Blue Jays have made a significant move in the relief market, signing Tyler Rogers to a three-year, $37 million deal with a $11 million vesting option for 2029. This contract is the largest reliever deal handed out by the current front office, marking a bold move in team strategy.
Rogers, turning 35 on Wednesday, is an unusual reliever. He employs a unique submarine pitching style, releasing the ball just 16 inches off the ground, the lowest in the MLB last season by more than a foot and a half. His pitch repertoire includes three-quarters of 84 mph sinkers with 13 inches of induced drop, and the remainder are 74 mph sliders with 14 inches of vertical rise. This approach is highly unconventional, with no direct comparison in the algorithm's database.
Despite his unconventional style, Rogers has consistently baffled batters. He allows a 16% strikeout rate and an 85% contact rate, both near the bottom of the league. However, very little of that contact results in hits. His career ground ball rate is around 57%, and only 35 out of over 1300 balls in play have been barrelled up, which is about a third of the average. This has resulted in a solid career ERA of 2.76, which aligns with the StatCast-based xERA model.
Rogers' low-velocity approach has also contributed to his durability. Over the past five seasons, he has led all MLB relievers with 374 appearances and 378.1 innings, showcasing his reliability and longevity. The Blue Jays value durability, and Rogers fits this profile exceptionally well, similar to Dylan Cease in the rotation.
This signing seems tailored to the Blue Jays' preferences. They are known for not paying top dollar for relievers and prioritizing durability. Rogers has a proven track record of responding when his team needs him, and his unique pitching style means he won't be compensated like a top-20 reliever. While there is risk involved, given his age and reliance on deception, his performance so far suggests that this strategy could pay off. If he maintains his career performance over the next three years, he will be the second-best reliever signed this winter for almost half the price of the top reliever.
