Glaciers in the Alps are facing an unprecedented crisis, with a study predicting their peak rate of extinction in just eight years. More than 100 glaciers are expected to melt away permanently by 2033, according to the research. This alarming trend is not limited to the Alps; glaciers in the western US and Canada are projected to reach their peak year of loss less than a decade later, with over 800 disappearing each year by then. The melting of glaciers, driven by human-caused global heating, is a stark indicator of the climate crisis. Communities worldwide have already held funeral ceremonies for lost glaciers, and a Global Glacier Casualty List records the names and histories of those that have vanished.
There are approximately 200,000 glaciers worldwide, with about 750 disappearing each year. However, the research indicates that this pace will accelerate rapidly as emissions from burning fossil fuels continue to be released into the atmosphere. Current climate action plans from governments are forecasted to push global temperatures to about 2.7C above pre-industrial levels, supercharging extreme weather. Under this scenario, glacier losses would peak at about 3,000 a year in 2040 and plateau at that rate until 2060. By the end of the century, 80% of today's glaciers will have gone.
In contrast, rapid cuts to carbon emissions to keep global temperature rise to 1.5C would cap annual losses at about 2,000 a year in 2040, after which the rate would decline. Previous studies have focused on the volume of ice lost, given its contribution to rising sea levels that threaten coastal towns and cities. However, individual glaciers are also important as water sources and tourist attractions for many communities, and often have spiritual significance for local people. This prompted the researchers to analyze the number of glaciers disappearing.
Matthias Huss, a senior scientist at ETH Zurich in Switzerland and a member of the study team, emphasized the personal impact of glacier loss: "As glaciologists, we do not only model the disappearance of glaciers globally, but we are very directly concerned with this loss of glaciers in our daily work." As the director of the Swiss glacier monitoring network, Huss recently declared four extinct, the latest in an estimated 1,000 lost in the country over the past three decades. He also spoke at a funeral ceremony for the Pizol glacier in 2019, where over 250 people climbed up to say goodbye.
Such funerals have also taken place in Iceland, Nepal, and elsewhere. "People climb up to these vanishing glaciers to say goodbye for themselves, but also to send out a strong signal to the public to tell them it matters to us," Huss explained. Many glaciers hold spiritual significance, for example, Māori culture regards them as ancestors. The Māori political leader Nā Lisa Tumahai visited the melting Kā Roimata o Hine Hukatere in 2022 and told the Global Glacier Casualty List: "This mighty glacier, a presence once so physically commanding, is shrinking into oblivion. [It] has been subdued, humiliated by the actions of humans."
"To see this retreating giant is to understand impermanence, to understand the real and terrible results of industrialization, of climate change." The new study, published in Nature Climate Change, analyzed more than 200,000 glaciers from a database of outlines derived from satellite images. The researchers used three global glacier models to assess their fate under different heating scenarios. Regions with the smallest and fastest-melting glaciers were found to be the most vulnerable. The study estimates that the 3,200 glaciers in central Europe would shrink by 87% by 2100, even if global temperature rise is limited to 1.5C, rising to 97% under 2.7C of heating.
In the western US and Canada, including Alaska, about 70% of today's 45,000 glaciers are projected to vanish under 1.5C of heating, and more than 90% under 2.7C. The Caucasus and southern Andes are also expected to face devastating losses. Larger glaciers take longer to melt, with those in Greenland reaching their peak extinction rate in about 2063, losing 40% by 2100 under 1.5C of heating and 59% under 2.7C. However, the melting is forecasted to continue beyond 2100.
The researchers emphasized that the peak loss dates represent more than a numerical milestone: "They mark turning points with profound implications for ecosystems, water resources, and cultural heritage. [It is] a human story of vanishing landscapes, fading traditions, and disrupted daily routines." These transitions also underscore the urgent need to help communities adapt to changing conditions, they said, with 2 billion people downstream reliant on mountain water for regular supplies and food security. Adaptation measures could include new types of farming, alternative businesses to replace tourism, and even artificial glaciers, which have been trialled in Kyrgyzstan.
Dr Arun Bhakta Shrestha, a senior adviser at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development and not part of the study, said: "[The study] underscores how today's climate decisions will profoundly influence the future of these vital natural features." Shrestha noted that the work offered a valuable perspective on the rapid changes occurring in glacier landscapes and the people that depend on them, while acknowledging some limitations, including uncertainty in counting small and debris-covered glaciers and the lack of up-to-date data.
